Probabilistic feasibility space of scaling up green hydrogen supply

Green hydrogen and derived electrofuels are attractive replacements for fossil fuels in applications where direct electrification is infeasible. While this makes them crucial climate neutrality, rapidly scaling up supply critical challenging. Here we show that even if electrolysis capacity grows as fast wind solar power have done, green will remain scarce the short term uncertain long term. Despite initial exponential growth, likely (?75%) supplies <1% of final energy until 2030 European Union 2035 globally. By 2040, a breakthrough to higher shares more likely, but large uncertainties prevail with an interquartile range 3.2–11.2% (EU) 0.7–3.3% (globally). Both short-term scarcity long-term uncertainty impede investment end uses infrastructure, reducing hydrogen’s potential jeopardizing targets. However, historic analogues suggest emergency-like policy measures could foster substantially growth rates, expediting increasing likelihood future availability. part plans achieve targets, yet how quickly scale unclear. Using technology diffusion model, Odenweller et al. power, suffer from uncertainty.